Case Study: Absorption of Subdivision Lots in Sandy, Oregon Sandy is a small city along Highway 26 between Portland and Mount Hood, with an estimated population of 8,420 according to PSU’s Population Research Center. At the height of the recent housing boom in 2006, there were 193 housing starts in Sandy. Last year there were 45. By my count there are nearly 450 unbuilt vacant lots, with street improvements and all utilities to the site. That is a ten year supply at current absorption. At the south end of town, the Snowberry Subdivision has about 100 vacant and unsold lots. [pic] Let’s look at three scenarios of lot absorption for our subject property with its 100 unsold lots. The first and most optimistic premise is indicated …show more content…
Average lot price $50,000. Discount Rate 10%. Other parameters as shown above. Determine the Present Value of the Cash Flows, and the Present Value per Lot. Year |# of Lots Sold |Ave. Lot Price |Gross Annual Cash Flows |Mark. $ Misc. costs |Developer's P&O |Net Annual Cash Flows |Discount Factors |PV of Cash Flows | |0 |0 | |0 |0 |0 |0 |1 |0 | |1 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.9091 |409095 | |2 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.8264 |371880 | |3 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.7513 |338085 | |4 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.683 |307350 | |5 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.6209 |279405 | |6 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.5645 |254025 | |7 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.5132 |230940 | |8 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.4665 |209925 | |9 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.4241 |190845 | |10 |10 |50000 |500000 |25000 |25000 |450000 |0.3855 |173475 | | | | | | | | |Total |2765025 | | | | | | | | |Rounded |2765000 | | | | | | | | |PV per Lot |27650 | | (2) Using a slightly more optimistic model, assume that both the pace of absorption and lot pricing will increase over the next few years: Years 1, 2, and 3: 10 lots per year at $50,000/lot Years 4 and 5: 20 lots per year at $55,000/lot Year 6: 30 lots per year at $60,000/lot Determine the Present Value of the Cash
Estimate the project’s operating cash flows for each year of the project’s economic life. (Hint: Use Table 2 as a guide)
Using the tables (shown below and in Exhibit 1) to calculate cash flow before financing and net proceeds from sale, a DCF method was used to arrive at a NPV of $216,789 and IRR of 13.3% for a 5-year holding period at assumed vacancy of 5% (Exhibit 1). As mentioned earlier, this IRR exceeds the 12.5% initially set out, and therefore seems like a feasible project. Using a higher vacancy rate of 7%, however, lowers the IRR to a point that is no longer feasible. If holding all else same, a vacancy of 7% on the building yields a NPV of $122,420 and an IRR of 11.47% (please see table below and Exhibit 2). This IRR does not meet the minimum required and therefore the assumption of vacancy rates staying at 5% is paramount to our analysis. This aspect of the analysis is considerably risky as an assumed vacancy rate does not necessarily yield a guaranteed rate. If vacancy happens to rise, then the valuation of the property is far different than what was originally envisioned.
Evaluating the risks, calculating the probability of success, and factoring in the projected profit from sales will provide a clearer NPV to be compared with other projects in the
The population of Sandy is growing because Sandy is a physically attractive place. Many families are coming to Sandy because it is a safe place to raise their children. There is a lot of economic development, so there are a lot of job opportunities. There are more buildings being
With a growing real estate market, investors can expect a good return on their investment. In addition, the industries within the town bring in new residents and potential business income.
Table 7 in the detailed analysis above shows the summary of the Discounted Cash Flow analysis performed for each of the four potential properties considered for investment. From the chart below, we observe that of the four properties, TFB has the maximum increase in reversion value at the end of the holding period, i.e. 10years. On a primarily income generation potential basis, Alison Green, with a Net Present value of the future rents at $734.29 looks attractive among the four options. Looking at the Investment ranks of the four properties with Simple returns and Discounted returns variables, Alison
$135,000 $90,000 TOTAL REVENUE $3,136,500 $2,352,375 $1,568,250 Expences TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS $454,000 $340,500 $227,000 TOTAL FIXED COSTS $1,403,000 $1,403,001 $1,403,002 TOTAL EXPENSE BEFORE IT $1,857,000 $1,743,501 $1,630,002 EBIT $1,279,500 $608,874 -$61,752 Depreciation $320,000 $320,001 $320,002 EBITDA $1,599,500 $928,875 $258,250 Furnishing Interest $110,000 $110,000 $110,000 20yr Mortgage Interest $182,000 $182,000 $182,000 TOTAL INTEREST $292,000 $292,000 $292,000 TAXES (40%) $395,000.00 $126,749.60 -$141,500.80 Furnishing Principal $180,160 $180,160 $180,160 20yr Mortgage Principal $49,713 $49,713 $49,713 TOTAL PRINCIPAL $229,873 $229,873 $229,873 NET INCOME $362,627 -$39,749 -$442,124 DIVIDEND PAYMENT $29,010 -$3,180 -$35,370 RETAINED EARNINGS $333,617 -$36,569 EBIT/INTEREST 4.38 2.09 (0.21) EBITDA/INTEREST 5.48 3.18 0.88 BURDEN $675,121.67 $675,121.67 $675,121.67 EBIT/BURDEN 1.90 0.90 (0.09) ROE= Net Income/OE (H1) 32.97% -3.61% -40.19% Revenue Estimates Revenue Item 100% Monthly 75%
Exhibit 1 gives us an overview of each of the properties, such as the gross purchase price, the depreciable base, estimated sales prices, the amount of the first mortgage and so forth. These assumptions are significant to the calculations used throughout the entire case.
General Foods is a large corporation organized by product lines. They are evaluating Super Project, the manufacture of a new powdered dessert. Crosby Sanberg, a financial analysis manager, must determine the value in accepting the proposal, along with J.C. Kresslin, the Corporate Controller. The Super Project will increase profit with a payback period of less than ten years. The proposed capital investment for the project is $200,000 ($80,000 for building modifications and $120,000 for machinery and equipment) and production would take place
The total current Assessed value is $850,000. During this time, Denver is on a growing trend and projected to continue. In the local area, new housing, new neighborhoods, new malls, and even schools are under way or in the planning stages. The Grande property is large and there are plenty of expansion options. The Grande’s have not come up with an asking price, but the local banks have offered to provide a 15-year note for a max of $624,000.
The real estate division was estimated to have a fair value of $13,890,000. This was determined by totaling the number of lots expected to sell within the next four years and multiplying it by the price per lot of $180,000. After determining total lot sales, a 20% discount rate was applied as suggested by current market conditions. Given the unique nature of the real estate development, it is not believed that there are any comparable developments to find a market multiple.
These number will be used for predicting future financial statements later in this case study.
Our approach to valuing the processing plant can easily be decomposed into three distinct steps first, find the value of the foreseeable free cash flows. Next, calculate the terminal value of the project. Finally, take the present value of those flows. The next few paragraphs walk through each of these steps in order of progression.
This case involves an investigation of the factors that affect the sale price of Oceanside condominium units. It represents an extension of an analysis of the same data by Herman Kelting (1979). Although condo sale prices have increased dramatically over the past 20 years, the relationship between these factors and sale price remain about the same. Consequently, the data provide valuable insight into today’s condominium sales market.
This case investigates the factors that are affecting the sale price of Oceanside condominium units. The relationship between these factors and sale price has remained the same despite condo sale prices increasing drastically over the past 20 years.