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Federal Interest Rates: A Case Study

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On September 17, 2015 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet and decide whether or not to raise interest rates for the first time in 9 years. Until the recent global sell-off, most experts believe the Fed will raise rates to 0.5%. However, considering the latest developments, this is becoming more unlikely. The possibility that there will be a rate hike in September causes a roller coaster ride throughout the markets. But what will actually happen in the economy, if interest rates do head north? 1. Individuals and businesses will face higher lending costs, which could affect company's top and bottom lines The interest rate, or more precisely, the "federal funds rate," is the cost at which banks borrow money from the Federal …show more content…

Hence, individuals and companies will have to pay more for their credit card and mortgage interest rates and loans become more expensive. As a result, consumers will be spending less money Moreover, companies will borrow less and therefore lack money which they need for investments. That will have negative effects on companies' growth, profitability and so on. 2. Stock market may decline, (although that rarely happened during previous tightening cycles) Heres how it works: To determine a stock price, future cash flows are discounted and the result is divided by the number of shares. If companies face higher lending costs and less consumer spending, their cash flow could decline which would result in a lower valuations. Higher interest rates make stocks less attractive compared to bonds. However, bonds released previously to the rate hike will become less attractive than newly issued bonds, unless, of course, they carry a floating interest rate. Net result will be bond prices declining. There could be negative effects on stocks and bonds, markets have performed well during previous tightening cycles. Stock markets went up and bond declines were not very dramatic. The Fed will raise interest rates gradually, and they will only do that, if the economy is doing

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